Curmudgeon (or Rudizink; it’s not clear from the post) of The Weber County Forum blog has opined that the new FrontRunner train (here) will soon reveal the “transformative” power commuter rail service may provide for the ailing “Stockade” district of Salt Lake and for the newly established “Junction” square in Ogden. To suggest that FrontRunner is going to solve the economic woes of downtown Ogden or Salt Lake is a matter of extremely bad judgment. Similarly, an adequate amount of statistical data will not be available for several years to determine whether the FrontRunner has assisted in Salt Lake or Ogden’s economic revitalization.
First, some facts. The Utah Transit Authority has spent millions of tax dollars and has acquired federal funds to construct a commuter rail system on the Northern Wasatch Front. The Northern Wasatch Front system will extend from Salt Lake to Ogden (and North Ogden and Pleasantville eventually). The FrontRunner is set to open next Saturday, April 26th. [You can bet I'll be attending the celebration! But more on that later.]
In Salt Lake, the Intermodal hub “Salt Lake Central” station enables passengers to transfer to the light-rail system (“TRAX”) and to buses. TRAX and buses serve much of the area from Provo in the South to Logan in the North, and the University of Utah. Ogden’s hub serves only as a connection point for buses.
Curmudgeon’s post seems to imply that the FrontRunner commuter rail project will not likely affect Ogden’s economy positively because Ogden hasn’t got a trolley or light-rail system. Curmudgeon has written:
The Ogden FrontRunner station[...] does not have a trolley connection to the rest of the city… and probably won’t so long as Mayor Godfrey clings to his unfortunate obsession with a flatland gondola terminal there instead. But we are going to get, very short, some very real-world evidence on the potential for transit oriented development in both downtown the Ogden and downtown Salt Lake FrontRunner station neighborhood.
It appears that Curmudgeon wouldn’t have such a problem if Ogden’s Mayor Matthew Godfrey hadn’t proposed a gondola from downtown Ogden to Weber State University (and eventually to a “projected” ski resort at Malan’s Basin). The argument diverts attention from the true reason for or against economic success.
FrontRunner’s success or failure to attract passengers to-and-from Ogden or Salt Lake will not matter for the economic situations in the respective cities. Economic development depends on consumers. If the new developments appeal to consumers’ interests, they will visit and they will spend money. If they spend money, then that will likely contribute to the economic progress of Ogden and Salt Lake. But FrontRunner has nothing whatsoever to do with the cities’ economic welfare.
An example of what I mean here has already happened in Salt Lake. When TRAX was built, the “Gateway” district was underdeveloped (maybe even in dire straits). The TRAX line was built, and the new shops attracted consumers from all over the Salt Lake Valley. Downtown Salt Lake, however, didn’t fare as well. Despite the fact that the new TRAX system passed directly through the center of town, small and large businesses closed.
Blaming the mayor for bad judgment about the gondola and suggesting that FrontRunner’s opening will provide us with adequate evidence for “transit oriented development” is naive. The new system has to be accepted by the population as a viable means of getting from one place to another before we can judge its success. Given how Utahns have been raised to think that public transportation is a bad use of tax dollars, I doubt Utahns’ paradigms will change overnight.
Since I was raised in Boston where public transportation isn’t a convenience but a necessity, I am very interested in FrontRunner. The new commuter train will provide another way for me to get from Ogden to Salt Lake, and to other points around Utah.
A couple of points: I put up the SLT article because it noted that, a couple of years after various grand projects had been announced that were to happen in the neighborhood surrounding the Front Runner Station in SLC, nothing had in fact materialized and that the jury was still very much out on the promised “transformative” impact of Frontrunner on the terminal neighborhoods.
Second: we are going to get good evidence soon concerning the impact of Frontrunner on Ogden’s economy. That evidence may show that it is having a substantial impact, or it may show that it is having not much of an impact at all, or even a negative impact. I didn’t make any predictions about how the evidence would fall out. Only that, once FR arrived, we’d have pretty good evidence [one way or the other] about those alleged “transformative” impacts and wouldn’t have to speculate about them any more.
Third: You seem to be suggesting that the success of FR in Ogden depends on drawing FR riders who will travel to Ogden to shop. I doubt that is what the promoters here are expecting. They are expecting that FR will lead to a lot of new condo sales downtown [many going up in and near The Junction development], and a significantly increased population that lives downtown, within walking distance of the FR station. And that those new residents of Ogden will, necessarily, do a good deal of their shopping, eating out, movie-going etc. here. Seems a reasonable assumption to make, if FR leads to a significant increase in downtown residents. We’ll have to see.
Finally, Frontrunner or no Frontrunner, Mayor Godfrey’s flatland gondola in Ogden, running between downtown and WSU [about four miles] with only one “stop” between each end of the system is a damn fool idea.
Perhaps I missed the point of your argument (or you may not have an argument to offer for your position). But, from the quotation I pulled off of the blog, it sounded like the economic success of Ogden depends on transit development beyond Frontrunner (“FR”).
On point 2: I’m not sure of the argument you’re making here. You’re simply asserting that “we are going to get good evidence soon,” but I don’t think it’s at all clear we will have any evidence whatsoever about the impact of FR on Ogden’s economy in the next few years. The development is too young to expect any good statistical evidence for the success or failure of FR.
On point 3: I think you’ve misrepresented what I said because I used the term “consumer.” Your mistake is understandable since I gather you’re not familiar with business or economic terminology (per your own statements in the Weber County Forum blog). As you rightly point out, it’s not at all about attracting “shoppers” to Ogden; it’s about attracting “consumers,” people who may choose to live in Ogden and contribute to the economy of Ogden. So, by your own point, short-term economic data will be unreliable because people have to move here and contribute to the economy. A person’s deciding to move here – especially in light of the “recession” – will take a lot more time than 3 or 4 months; it could take them 10 or 15 years.
On your final point: I have nothing against stopping the “flatland gondola,” though I’d prefer to hear more robust arguments against it than it’s a “damn fool idea,” which is no argument at all. I think it’s a silly idea too, but I actually have a reason for thinking it’s a bad idea: other cities with flatland gondola systems whose demographics resemble Ogden’s have failed to profit from it, either economically or culturally, so Ogden’s flatland gondola system will fail too. No city should invest in a system’s failure. So, Ogden shouldn’t invest in the flatland gondola. Voila! An argument!